Wall Street Preparing For Mexico’s Left-Wing President Obrador


Mexico will elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, better known by the acronym that bears his initials: AMLO. The third time will be a charm. Survey data suggests a 92% probability of AMLO taking the presidency on July 1. NAFTA will, therefore, have two dueling populists.

Based on the average voter intention of 16 separate polls, AMLO enjoys 48.2% support . His nearest competitor, Ricardo Anaya Cortes, has just 27.5%. Let’s call this one for the Mexican populist.

“I think out of the gate he will be looking at providing relief to the lower classes, and I think you are unlikely to see austerity and more likely to see reductions to the VAT that have hurt people at the bottom,” says Vladimir Signorelli, founder of top-down investment research firm Bretton Woods. “In a certain respect, Trump and AMLO are on the same page that the dependence of cheap labor does not really benefit the society of Mexico. NAFTA, to AMLO, thinks its been a trade deal for the elites. I think they both understand that. You might see wage increases under AMLO, especially if you have a weakening peso. It’s a must. I’m optimistic. This is not Mexico’s Hugo Chavez,” he says about the late Venezuelan president.

Read more at https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/06/06/market-preparing-for-mexico-president-obrador/#33f738712efa