By Dimitris Konstantakopoulos*
Summary: In the following paper, we will present the reasons why a nuclear war in the Middle East is now quite possible, the deterrent intervention of China which interrupted a period of dangerous tolerance of Israel by the great powers, and the relationship between what is happening in West Asia and what is happening around Ukraine and the American continent, particularly in Cuba.
From the invasion of Iraq (2003) to the attack on Iran (2026)
We have been pointing out since 2006 the near inevitability of the use of nuclear weapons against Iran , if powerful states and powerful movements did not prevent it.
This inevitability stemmed from the need to complete the neoconservative program which has been designed under the guidance and with the support and funding of Netanyahu, a program aimed at Israel’s complete regional dominance (“Greater Israel”) in the Middle East through the destruction, fragmentation, and chaotic disintegration of all states in the region, even pro-Western ones, and also at the global domination of Israel and the US. This program had to be completed with the conquest of Iran (if not also North Korea). However, such a feat seemed impossible with conventional weapons, especially based on the experience of the invasion of Iraq, and, as things stand, it remains unachievable with conventional forces.
Since then, we have argued that to avoid reaching this point, there would need to be decisive resistance from peoples and states to these plans. There was indeed some reaction from Obama, who signed an agreement with Tehran (which Trump abolished) and avoided invading Syria after the provocation with the alleged chemical weapons attack. However, while he reacted on these issues, he compromised with the Zionist lobby on several others, such as accepting lobby-controlled politicians (like Hillary Clinton and Nuland) in his administration, the attack on Libya, and allowing the deeply Zionist and neoconservative Victoria Nuland, along with the then CIA director, to organize the Maidan coup in Ukraine. His half- opposition to the Iranian and Syrian plans of Israel and the Lobby was not enough to permanently uproot these plans, nor certainly the lobby’s influence. Then came Mr. Trump, a construction and an instrument of Benjamin Netanyahu, one of the greatest political fraudsters of all time, claiming to be against “endless wars” and hinting that he was friendly towards Russia. Already during his first term, the “pro-Russian” and “pro-peace” Trump abolished the agreement with Iran, tried to start a war with Iran by assassinating General Soleimani, and armed Ukraine to the teeth (an Ukraine to which Obama had refused to give “lethal arms”) See: Can Trump be a solution?
Thus, Trump laid the foundations for his second term, during which we are already witnessing an orgy of dismantling international law, denying elementary humanism and civilization, launching of threats, gangster operations and threats against a series of countries, and finally the war we are witnessing against Iran. It is already clear that Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Trump are trying to impose a new international order that has no substantial differences from the one dreamed of by Adolf Hitler. They also took advantage of Russia’s involvement in Ukraine to do these things, but also of the outrageous deceptions they spread about their true plans and intentions.
One of the reasons Trump (and essentially Netanyahu behind him) moved so quickly against so many targets simultaneously is probably the imperialist core’s belief that there will be no major reaction from Russia as long as negotiations on Ukraine continue, and from China as long as a trade agreement is pending.
The nuclear threat becomes concrete. The “Dresden” and “Hiroshima” models
To return now to Iran, since the start of the current war, both we and some other authoritative international observers have pointed out the risk that the Zionist regime and/or the US – which is, after all, controlled by the former – might use the nuclear weapons they possess to destroy Iran: The Nuclear Question | James K. Galbraith, Will Israel and/or the United States Use Nuclear Weapons?, Breaking the Nuclear Taboo, Schiller Institute forum warns of global nuclear war, urges new security architecture, Jeffrey Sachs: Israel Could Use Nuclear Weapons Against Iran
Moreover, Netanyahu himself, refuting accusations of genocide against the Palestinians, reminded Westerners of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but also of the conventional Allied bombings of German cities at the end of World War II, which had consequences similar to nuclear attacks. Essentially, he told them: “since you had the right to wipe out Hiroshima and flatten Dresden, I have the same right.” He said it and did it in Gaza with conventional means, while one of his ministers threatened to do it with nuclear weapons as well.
Furthermore, as of last June, we had already crossed the nuclear threshold with the attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, which inevitably release radiation.
Just the day before yesterday, Israel used the “Dresden” formula by striking Iran’s energy facilities and provoking the predictable and inevitable response from the Iranians, who had warned of strikes across the Middle East, while simultaneously flattening Lebanon and wanting to push Syrian jihadists into military involvement against Hezbollah. This has already caused enormous global economic damage and immense harm to the global climate and natural environment. Even if the war stops tomorrow, we must wait at least until 2027 to hope for a reversal of the economic consequences, if a major economic crash hasn’t been triggered. It is already estimated that the lives of ten million Indians are directly threatened due to the fuel crisis. It is doubtful that the impacts on the climate and natural environment can ever be reversed, and they risk accelerating the planet’s path towards an Ecological Holocaust.
Moreover, the assassination of the most important, authoritative, and experienced leaders of Iran by Israel and the US complicates any effort for a peaceful resolution.
However, there is a limit to the utility of the Dresden model, as was evident from the start. Israel risks very heavy (“unacceptable” in nuclear strategy terminology) losses, while the complete destruction of West Asia is now a visible possibility, testing the limits of America, Europe, India, and many others as well. And this is what makes the “Hiroshima” scenario, the next in the fatal chain of escalation, relevant now.
And it’s not just me or some analysts saying this. It is President Trump’s own “czar” for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies David Sachs who says it, the man who organized Silicon Valley for Trump. Sacks argued that there is a real risk of Israel using nuclear weapons to destroy Iran since it cannot succeed otherwise. Sacks called on the President to avoid the – existing, as he reveals – recommendations and pressures for a ground invasion and regime change, to declare victory, and to exit the war.
Sacks’ warning came one day after the resignation of the head of the counter-terrorism agency, who stated that Israel pushed the US into a war for its own interest, not that of the US.
China warns
These statements, and most likely the information it possesses, provoked an unofficial but very harsh statement from Beijing. This is the first time a major power has interrupted the unprecedented tolerance enjoyed by Israel and its lobbies, a tolerance that has now led humanity to the brink of the abyss.
Specifically, Victor Gao, vice-president of the Chinese Institute for China and Globalization, when asked what the two nuclear powers, Russia and China, would do if Israel used nuclear weapons, he stated to the American The Cradle, that “the moment Israel uses a nuclear warhead against any country, it will be considered the number one enemy of humanity, it will be the demise of Israel as a state, as a regime, as a country.” He simultaneously warned Prime Minister Netanyahu, the government of Israel, and its armed forces that they will be considered enemies of humanity and responsible for whatever happens, in an indirect but clear reference to the Nuremberg trials that judged the Nazi leaders. Mr. Gao made it clear that what he says does not concern condemnatory statements but an advance notice of actions. He congratulated Mr. Trump on his statement that Israel will not use nuclear weapons and expressed the wish that he acts effectively in this direction.
Mr. Gao adds that any use of nuclear weapons by Israel will lead to an explosive proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East and their use would result in hundreds of millions of deaths and the transformation of the entire region into an uninhabitable zone.
Mr. Gao makes also a reference to the Epstein archives.
The Chinese warning has been phrased in a… Chinese way. Mr. Gao is the head of a small party allied with the Communist Party and holds no government position, so the responsibility for his statement cannot be directly attributed to the Chinese leadership or the CCP. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that it constitutes an unofficial but authoritative expression of the Chinese position on the matter. And to leave us in no doubt on the issue, the Chinese Academy distributed this specific excerpt of Gao’s statements under the characteristic title “What would China do if Israel dropped a nuclear weapon?”.
Stop Israel!
We hope Beijing’s warning and threat (whether made in coordination with Moscow or not, we do not know) does not come too late to halt the march towards the abyss.
Of course, the US (the President and the legislative branch) seem now to be controlled in numerous ways by Israel and the Zionist lobbies).
But we would not have reached the point we are now, nor would we be running such risks, if Europe, Russia, China, India, and all the others had not tolerated or even supported Israel in the genocide of the Palestinians, which emboldened the Netanyahu leadership. They tolerated or supported the overthrow of Assad by jihadists with the support of Turkey, Israel, and the US. The fall of Syria opened Israel’s path to Tehran and Lebanon
They tolerated or supported the kidnapping of President Maduro, which allowed the US to control Venezuela’s oil, something Israel considered necessary before the war on Iran, a war that would inevitably lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as had been pointed out in time. Venezuela opened the way for Iran.
The way the world’s major powers have so far handled the “neo-fascist duo” of Netanyahu and Trump is strongly reminiscent of the way all European powers, without exception, handled Adolf Hitler in the 1930s, thereby allowing him to occupy all of continental Europe before taking the USSR by surprise, with the Wehrmacht advancing to the outskirts of Moscow.
In the past, such a policy led to World War II. Will Israel today be allowed to trigger the Third and final World War? Let us hope that the reaction of states and societies will halt the march towards a nuclear and ecological holocaust.
Note 1: We mentioned Cuba. Its potential fall would signify an unprecedented triumph of American imperialism with enormous global political consequences. It would also legitimize the dismantling of every notion of International Law and Civilization. But it would also remove a crucial element of the nuclear balance between Russia and the US, dating back to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Sixty years later, America is effectively reneging on its promise to Moscow not to attack Cuba. This is also a key reason why Trump is now pursuing this aggressive policy in Cuba, and it is likely also the reason he is laying claim to Greenland, which is a privileged location for deploying an anti-ballistic shield. He has also shown interest in controlling Iceland, and it is worth remembering that the Greenland-Iceland-Britain line controls the entry of Russian submarines into the Atlantic. For America to be able to launch a first nuclear strike against Russia and/or China, it must possess adequate anti-ballistic defense to intercept the retaliatory strike.
Note 2: From the foregoing, one might conclude that Israel is responsible for all the world’s problems. In reality, the Zionist state and its various powerful lobbies around the world, a kind of Zionist International, act as the most determined and most extremist component of global Finance Capital, of global Capitalism. Their power stems partly from the fact that there is not yet, today, a left-wing alternative to the system. While “globalization” has failed as a tool for the global imposition of the West and Capitalism, of the power of Money over humanity, we have therefore arrived, as in the period 1914–1945, at the era of great wars and Fascism, even if, under current conditions, this entails an increased risk of the destruction, in one way or another, of humanity.
* former Advisor of Greek PM Andreas Papandreou on Arms Control and East-West relations, former correspondent in Moscow
