The “Funeral Pause” Exposes Washington’s Inability and Israel’s Confusion… and Hormuz Rejects the American Show of Force — Talal Nahle
IntelSky | July 5, 2026
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On the eighteenth day since the signing of the memorandum of understanding, “funeral diplomacy” imposes its rhythm on the region, forcing Washington and Tel Aviv to submit to a “forced pause” until the conclusion of the million-strong farewell ceremonies for the Iranian Supreme Leader.
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The overall scene reflects a rapid erosion of American wagers; while Trump expected an Iranian internal collapse, he was surprised by unprecedented popular solidarity, coinciding with the failure of his Secretary of State’s campaign to prevent countries from participating in the funeral.
This diplomatic failure is accompanied by an escalating silent confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, where Washington is testing Tehran’s control by sending a cargo ship under heavy air cover. Meanwhile, Israel continues to drown in Lebanese contradictions, as the Grand Serail retreats from endorsing the withdrawal, and Trump halts Netanyahu’s military operations.
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First: Trump’s Shock and the Funeral Referendum (The Collapse of the Wager on Internal Dismantling)
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The massive funeral ceremonies in their second day delivered a slap to American political and intelligence estimates, forcing Trump to admit his miscalculation. * Trump’s Confessions: In an interview with Axios, the US President explicitly admitted: “I was surprised to see Iranians crying at Khamenei’s funeral, as I thought the people hated him.”
This statement exposes the failure of the CIA’s wagers to stir up unrest by supporting certain factions, and proves that the assassination strengthened Iranian national cohesion and mitigated internal differences, turning the funeral into a “second revolution” supporting the resistance project—a sentiment echoed by the *Yedioth Ahronoth* newspaper, which described the crowds as “a finger in America’s eye.” * Forced Pause: Trump announced a one-week “pause” from talks, confirming a ceasefire from both sides during the funeral.
Despite his attempt to portray the matter as a “favor” or claiming that the Iranians are “begging for a deal,” the reality on the ground and the assertions of the Iranian Foreign Ministry prove that Tehran is leveraging this event as a starting point to dictate its terms and assert its independence, renewing the demand for retribution as a non-negotiable right. * Security Caution (Preventing the Appearance of the New Supreme Leader):
In an indication of deep awareness of American and Israeli treachery, Iranian security apparatuses prevented the new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) from leading the funeral prayer publicly, fearing that Israel would exploit the event to assassinate him, knowing that the occupation does not respect conventions and targets civilians to achieve its goals.
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Second: The Hormuz Test and the Show of Force
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The waters of the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz have turned into a testing ground of wills, where America is attempting to regain its lost maritime prestige. * Iranian Warning Message: Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi issued a stern warning, stressing that the Strait of Hormuz is not a stage for a military parade, and that the coastal states are exclusively responsible for its security. * The American Maneuver:
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In contrast, and in defiance of these warnings, an American attempt was detected to escort the Greek cargo ship (MINOAN SKY) through the Omani line, supported by American air cover comprising 7 refueling aircraft and an AWACS (E-3) plane. This move comes after *Bloomberg* reported a retreat and U-turn by at least 8 ships fleeing the American route towards the Iranian route. The scene now is a struggle between Washington’s attempt to prove its ability to protect navigation and Tehran’s insistence on establishing a reality of absolute sovereignty.
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Third: Israeli Confusion and Washington’s “Veto” on Lebanon
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The crises of the Israeli entity are exacerbating under the weight of absolute subordination to American decisions, internal attrition, and the absence of a military horizon in Lebanon.
* Reining in Netanyahu: Israel’s Channel 15 confirmed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested to carry out a military operation in the “Ali al-Taher” area in southern Lebanon, but US President Donald Trump explicitly asked him to postpone the operation, preferring to focus on completing the settlement with Iran.
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This “veto” validates the statements of former Shin Bet chief Ami Ayalon that Netanyahu needs the war to continue in pursuit of political survival, and that Washington is no longer willing to provide cover for these adventures.
* Reserve Crisis and Isolation: With a severe shortage of manpower, the occupation army intends to issue emergency call-up orders to extend the service of mandatory conscripts for an additional two months, adding massive financial burdens and fueling internal anger.
On the political front, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s trip to New York was canceled due to fears of arrest and protests, serving as a new indicator of the expanding ring of isolation and legal pursuit surrounding the entity’s leaders.
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Fourth: The Lebanese Arena and the Shaky “Framework Agreement”
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The Lebanese home front is witnessing growing division over the nature of the agreement with Israel, in light of contradictory official statements.
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* Siniora’s Retreat: Former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora dropped a heavy bombshell via Al Jazeera when he admitted that the framework agreement “did not touch upon an Israeli withdrawal, but merely spoke of redeployment,” justifying this by saying the state was forced to negotiate.
This statement shatters the authority’s promises and confirms that what was signed is a dangerous sovereign concession.
* Baabda’s Stagnation and Southern Explosions:
In contrast, President Joseph Aoun tried to salvage the situation by asserting that the agreement stipulates the deployment of the army’s control, warning against being dragged into sedition or bringing down the government. On the ground, the occupation army continues to practice a “scorched earth” policy, carrying out explosions in the towns of Kfar Tebnit, Kounine, and Haddatha to obstruct any future stability.
Meanwhile, these attacks delay the formation of the “Tripartite Committee” and prevent the start of implementing the so-called “experimental zones.” Conclusion and Strategic Trajectories The eighteenth day establishes a temporary “no war, no peace” phase governed by the ceiling of Iranian-American negotiations.
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The scenes of the million-strong funeral have proven the failure of the theory of an Iranian internal collapse and forced Washington to acknowledge the solidity of the political structure in Tehran.
The United States, which has chosen to protect its financial markets (which are declining sharply according to Bank of America), will not risk escalation in Hormuz, and its current air and naval maneuvers are nothing more than “saving face” before completing the deal to unfreeze funds.
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As for Israel, Netanyahu, restricted by Trump’s veto in Lebanon and besieged by a deadly conscription crisis, will try to exploit his upcoming meeting with Trump next week to extract political cover that prevents the collapse of his coalition. However, the reality on the ground confirms that the “framework agreement” in Lebanon has become merely ink on paper, and that withdrawal will only be achieved by imposing deterrence equations anew immediately after the one-week pause ends.
Read also: The sound of resistance in the streets of Tehran
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