The MRP poll predicts a big win for the Tories – is it right?

Major YouGov poll points to comfortable 68-seat majority for Boris Johnson on 12 December

Nov.27, 2019

It is billed as the poll that came closest to calling the unexpected result of the 2017 general election, although some of the buildup is helped by YouGov’s substantial marketing budget, the envy of rival pollsters.

But the result of its MRP poll – a recently developed technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification – for the Times, with its constituency by constituency model, makes seductive reading for the Conservatives and grim reading for Labour, predicting a big win for Boris Johnson and 359 seats, or 42 gains, for his party – and a majority of 68.

Labour, meanwhile, falls back to 211 seats – a result that would be in line with the disaster of 1983 – on the back of the analysis, which unlike regular polls uses a massive sample of 100,319 people to try to model the result in every single constituency in Great Britain.