Intel_Sky | Thursday, July 9, 2026
- The Strategy of Blinding the Adversary and Destroying Early Warning Networks in Qatar and Kuwait
The past few hours have witnessed a radical shift in the Iranian military retaliation doctrine. Operations have transitioned from striking conventional facilities to targeting control and early warning centers to blind the adversary’s operations and delay the expanded American aerial assault:
- Destruction of the SBIRS System at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar:
The Iranian army carried out a qualitative drone strike that hit the ground station of the Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) at Al Udeid Base. This system, valued at over a billion dollars and considered one of the top five early warning systems globally for real-time ballistic missile tracking, had its alternative infrastructure—operating at roughly 42% capacity after the primary radar was destroyed last February—crippled. This strike came as a direct punitive measure after detecting the departure of four US spy planes from Al Udeid to participate in recent attacks deep within Iran, which Tehran deemed a complete breach of security protocols with Doha.
- Taking Down Patriot 8.1 Radars in Kuwait:
Parallel to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) infrastructure strikes, the Iranian army focused its drone attacks on the central command-and-control radars of the modernized Patriot system (version 8.1) in Kuwait. Alongside destroying the alternative emergency radar, this inflicted massive logistical paralysis on the US air defense network on the southern coast, coinciding with the sound of explosions echoing in Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Air Base.
- Expanding the Ring of Fire: Pounding Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and Base Alerts in Iraq
The theater of Iranian operations is no longer confined to the waters of the Gulf; it has expanded to draw a broad ring of fire targeting US logistical and security support platforms in the region:
- Bombardment of Muwaffaq Salti Air Base with 10 Ballistic Missiles:
At exactly 14:20 this afternoon, the IRGC Aerospace Force executed a devastating attack using 10 precision-guided Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles, targeting the US West Asia Command and Control Center and the Azraq Air Base (Muwaffaq Salti) in eastern Jordan, from which US fighter jets operate. Reports confirmed violent explosions striking an industrial complex within the base, prompting the US Embassy in Amman to issue an urgent warning to its citizens. This occurred amid a decisive statement by the IRGC asserting that this is an initial response, and any repetition of American adventurism will subject all remaining bases in the region to heavy fire.
- Comprehensive Alert and Drone Strikes in Iraq:
The spark of escalation has shifted to the Iraqi arena, where warning sirens blared at the Third Tawhid Base in the capital, Baghdad, Camp Victory near the airport, and Harir Base in Erbil. Iraqi security sources confirmed that a camp belonging to Iranian Kurdish separatist forces in Erbil was hit by a precision drone strike. This was part of a preemptive operation announced by the IRGC to clear gathering points of US- and Zionist-backed groups along the borders.
Second: The Israeli Maneuver and the Fabrication of the “Assassination Plot”
The US de-escalation path does not align with the personal and political calculations of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is seeking a strategic victory before the upcoming elections:
- Entrapment Intelligence:
In an overt attempt to obstruct diplomacy, Israel leaked intelligence information, published by The Wall Street Journal, alleging a specific Iranian plot to assassinate President Donald Trump. This leak, which US officials considered an “attempt to push Trump toward escalation,” aims to provoke Trump personally and ensure that Washington continues its military action against Iran.
- Netanyahu and Survival Calculations:
Netanyahu realizes that a comprehensive war is his last chance to avoid political accountability and imprisonment. These maneuvers coincide with his upcoming visit to Washington, which appears to be a farewell visit given his waning influence and the shrinking power of the pro-Israel lobby (AIPAC). In this context, Netanyahu is escalating his domestic rhetoric, asserting that his army will remain in the security belt in southern Lebanon and that “the war is not over yet,” in complete alignment with the statements of his Defense Minister Israel Katz, who affirms the rejection of any withdrawal before Hezbollah is disarmed.
- Addiction to War and the Collapse of Readiness:
Despite the hardline Israeli rhetoric, the occupation army suffers from severe structural attrition; the Maariv newspaper revealed a critical shortage of spare parts for armored vehicles and tanks in regular maneuvering units, forcing soldiers to move on foot, as a result of political isolation and export bans (such as the German stance). This deficit exposes the stark contradiction between the ambitions of a political leadership “addicted to war” (as described by Israel Hayom) and the dilapidated reality on the ground.
Third: The Subservience of the Lebanese Authority and the Clash with Ain al-Tineh
In Lebanon, the repercussions of the divergence between American-Israeli desires and the internal balance of power are clearly evident:
- The Rush Towards “Rome” and Ignoring the Resistance:
Despite the occupation army’s continued shelling of the vicinity of the Ali al-Taher heights, the Lebanese Presidency, represented by Joseph Aoun, affirms moving forward with the implementation of the “Framework Formula” for the experimental zones. Lebanon’s participation in the direct negotiation round in Rome (July 15-16) has been confirmed, where the Israelis are expected to request the formation of political and security committees to end the “state of hostility.” Aoun’s team is counting on his upcoming visit to Washington to obtain economic and security “gifts,” ignoring internal objections, and relying on a flawed assessment that considers Hezbollah to be in a “very weak position” due to recent losses.
- Berri Establishes the “Islamabad” Reference:
In contrast, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri stands as a stumbling block against attempts to monopolize the decision of peace and war. Berri denied any Syrian role in intervening against Hezbollah in response to Trump, asserting that Damascus “is not in this mindset.” He dealt a political blow to Baabda’s efforts by asserting that the only final solution for Lebanon inevitably passes through a “return to what was stated in the Iranian-American Memorandum of Understanding (Islamabad),” which strips away the legitimacy of any commitments the Lebanese delegation might offer in Rome isolated from national consensus.
Conclusion and Strategic Outcomes
The events of the twenty-third day since the signing of the memorandum show that Washington realizes the impossibility of winning a war of attrition in the Gulf, which prompted it to suspend airstrikes and resort to diplomacy to ensure the flow of oil. This American retreat clashes with Netanyahu’s feverish desire to ignite a regional war to secure his political survival, which explains his utilization of the “Trump assassination” card as intelligence bait.
As for Lebanon, the Baabda political authority’s wager on the “Rome meeting” and the American umbrella to dismantle the resistance’s weapons is considered a leap into the unknown. The resistance, which has absorbed the blow of the assassinations and maintained its structure, supported by a solid political stance from Ain al-Tineh and a cohesive Iranian umbrella, will not allow the passage of secret annexes that legitimize the occupation. With the approach of Netanyahu’s visit to Washington and the mounting logistical crises for his army, the Lebanese arena will remain the most prominent stage for exchanging messages of influence, pending the crystallization of the outcomes of the diplomatic maneuvering between Tehran and Washington.
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