By Simplicius
May 20, 2026
Amidst Putin’s rousing arrival to China, a new groundswell of info-ops has sprouted around the mass Baltic drone hysteria.
New drone incursions took place in Lithuania and Estonia, the latter of which managed to finally become the first NATO state to successfully shoot down such a drone, to euphoric celebrations:
VILNIUS, May 18 (Reuters) – Explosives were found on Monday near the debris of a suspected Ukrainian military drone that crashed in Lithuania and will be disposed of through an explosion at the scene as the materials are too dangerous to remove, Lithuanian police said.
The drone was not detected when it entered Lithuania, Vilmantas Vitkauskas, chief of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre, told reporters on Sunday.
It was found crashed in the village of Samane, the centre said, which is 40 km (25 miles) from the Latvian border and 55 km from Belarus.
Let’s take a rational look at the above, which is reported by Reuters.
The drone was found in the village of Samane, which is here:
Ask yourself: what kind of realistic flight path would such a confirmed Ukrainian drone have taken? Is it going through Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, and onto Russia’s St. Petersburg region, thereby bypassing all Russian defenses along the western border, as demonstrated by the conjectural yellow line? Or is it perhaps bypassing Belarus as well, and heading through Poland? One realistic possibility is Ukraine is launching the drones from container ships somewhere off the Baltics’ coasts, as suspected to be the case in the Caspian and elsewhere.
Even Polish citizens have become fed-up with the propaganda of their own ministers, as seen earlier on a Polish talk show (mind the mistranslation, it shouldn’t say “Kharkiv” but rather a place in Poland where Ukraine’s missile killed two Poles):
“You’re constantly scaring us with Russian propaganda, but it was a Ukrainian missile that killed two Poles and there is no remorse from Ukraine” — Polish girl at Poland’s TV
Responses from the “experts”:
👉 “Putin must be defeated, locked up just like Hitler at Nuremberg.
👉 “It’s like talking about violence against women. There is always someone who will come forward and say my friend was beaten by his wife.”
Oddly during the latest incident, despite Latvia claiming to have no knowledge of the incurring drone, a NATO patrol craft was operating precisely over Baltic skies:
By a very strange coincidence, a Swedish reconnaissance aircraft, the Gulfstream G-IVSP (S102B Korpen), is flying over the area where Ukrainian drones were shot down. Formally, it is monitoring the ongoing Russian-Belarusian military exercises, but the coincidence is surprising.
As another comedic consequence of the latest drone scares, the Latvian oil terminal which was hit by a Ukrainian drone last week is being shut down. That means not only has the entire Latvian government and defense ministry collapsed over this one incident, but even energy infrastructure couldn’t bear the weight of it:
The oil depot in Latvia attacked by drones will be completely closed, – LSM
▪️The company East-West Transit is closing the oil depot for security reasons.
▪️The company reported that it “suffered losses due to the crash of drones on its oil storage facility”. The amount of the losses was not specified.
▪️Recall, due to the incident with Ukrainian drones, the Prime Minister resigned, and the entire government collapsed with her.
But the most serious bit of news relating to the drone scare, which validated much of what is presently occurring, came from an official communique published by Russia’s SVR intelligence service. It stated quite directly that Ukraine is “plotting to use Latvia” as a launchpad for strikes:
The official statement can be viewed here on the Kremlin’s site:
http://svr.gov.ru/smi/2026/05/ukraina-gotovit-udary-po-rossii-s-territorii-latvii.htm
It reads in full as follows—pay close attention to the bolded sections:
The press Bureau of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation reports that, according to information received by the SVR, the Zelensky regime aims to demonstrate by all means to its ideological and financial patrons in Europe the preservation of the combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and their ability to damage the Russian economy. It is on this basis that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is preparing to launch a series of new terrorist attacks on the rear regions of the Russian Federation.
According to the data obtained, Kiev does not intend to limit itself to using the air corridors provided by the Baltic states for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is also planned to launch drones from the territory of these countries. This tactic is intended to significantly reduce the time required to reach targets and increase the effectiveness of terrorist attacks.
Despite the Latvian side’s concerns about becoming a victim of Moscow’s retaliatory strike, the Kiev authorities convinced Riga to agree to the operation. The Ukrainians emphasized that it would be impossible to determine the exact location of the drone launch. As a result, the current Latvian rulers’ extreme Russophobia proved stronger than their ability to think critically or prioritize their own safety. The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Unmanned Systems Forces have already deployed troops to Latvia. They are stationed at the Latvian military bases of Adazi, Celia, Lielvarde, Daugavpils, and Jēkabpils.
One can only sympathize with the naivety of the Latvian leaders. Modern intelligence tools allow for the reliable determination of the coordinates of the UAV’s launch point. Reliable data can also be obtained by examining the wreckage of drones, as was the case with Ukraine’s attempt to attack the Russian President’s residence with drones in December last year. It is worth noting that the coordinates of decision-making centers on Latvian territory are well-known, and the country’s membership in NATO will not protect the terrorists’ accomplices from just retribution.
Press Office of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service
19.05.2026
Let us repeat this section once again, so no one misses it:
“It is worth noting that the coordinates of decision-making centers on Latvian territory are well-known, and the country’s membership in NATO will not protect the terrorists’ accomplices from just retribution.”
Russian ambassador Vasily Nebenzya subsequently confirmed this to the UN Security Council:
“The foreign intelligence of Russia did say that the coordinates of decision-making centers in Latvia are well known, and membership in NATO will not protect you from retaliation, even if you are a member of NATO,” Nebenzya said, speaking through an interpreter.
As can be seen, Russia is edging closer toward the inevitable—at least in rhetoric. Will Russia actually strike NATO territory? Almost certainly not, but if it did, NATO wouldn’t do anything anyway, and the consequences would likely lead to NATO’s total collapse.
In fact, there’s an interesting theory propagating that the reason Trump is slowly pulling the plug on US’s relations with NATO is because it’s part of a long-term US plan to surreptitiously stoke a war between Russia and Europe, one that would not be back-stopped by the US. Why would the US seek its own annihilation via nuclear mutual exchange, when it could simply get Europe and Russia to flatten each other, and their countries 50 years back, allowing the US to again gain global supremacy by simple virtue of “last man standing”?
It’s a plausible theory, no?
I myself have written many times in the past that the US would eventually make special “zonal” concessions for Article Five that would essentially allow localized fighting within NATO that would not trigger the infamous article. Recently, though, we’ve gotten more than enough indication that Article Five is essentially already dead in the water with NATO’s bloated corpse floating beside it.
For what it’s worth, the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately denied all Russian allegations, summoning the Russian Charge d’Affaires and lodging a formal complaint in shrill fashion.
Ukraine’s own officials immediately followed suit:
NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Alexus Grynkewich likewise went on a PR spree to dismiss Russia’s concerns with the specious claim that NATO is merely a “defensive alliance”, and that if Russia truly viewed NATO as a threat it would not have pulled its forces from the Leningrad Military District to Ukraine for the war.
Meanwhile, in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung journal, Lithuanian foreign minister lionized NATO while threatening to take out Russia’s Kaliningrad:
But then there’s Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave on the Baltic Sea.
We must show the Russians that we can penetrate the little stronghold they’ve built in Kaliningrad. NATO has the means to raze the Russian air defense and missile bases there to the ground in the event of an emergency.
NATO continues to adopt a more aggressive posture on Russia’s border:
RIGA, Latvia — The Canada-led NATO brigade in Latvia has moved beyond its original “tripwire” deterrence posture and is now focused on mounting a credible defense of the Baltic country bordering Russia, according to its commander, Col. Kris Reeves.
Die Zeit writes that Putin’s only option is escalation against Europe due to the faltering Ukrainian conflict:
To play devil’s advocate, the rationale is sound. Putin’s troops stop advancing, in part due to Europe’s support of Ukraine, so the natural move is to strike Europe in order to balk the timid Europeans and force them to withdraw support, leaving Ukraine ripe for the taking. It’s a plausible enough theory—and why not? Certainly, Putin has the justification for this given Europe’s full-fledged participation in the Ukrainian conflict—only the right casus belli is needed.
But the war hysteria didn’t stop there:
RvVoenkor summarizes:
Germany is preparing for a possible war with Russia and will allocate €10 billion for the development of civil defense, — Bild
The funds are planned to be used for the purchase of 1,000 special vehicles, the strengthening of protective structures, and the creation of a mobile camp for 110,000 people.
In addition, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt intends to conduct a nationwide audit of shelters, including bunkers, tunnels, and underground parking lots.
And meanwhile, they are bombing Russia with their drones from Ukrainian territory. Just like in 1941.
But it’s suspected that this can’t go on unpunished for long.
It’s time to dig bunkers, Krauts! And stock up on iodine! Hitler is doomed!
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RIA Novosti reports that the Zelenskys are slowly coming into the crosshairs, as we had written about recently.
Recall my own theory that Russia may be currently biding its time on a low-simmer mode because it has advance knowledge that Zelensky could finally face the music in the near future, and things will become much easier after that—or at least, more favorably dynamic.
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Lastly, you’ll recall Zelensky’s recent claim that Russia is preparing a new attack, potentially on Kiev, from the Belarus direction, and is allegedly trying desperately to involve Belarus in the Ukrainian war in any way possible. What’s interesting about this, is that one of Ukraine’s highest ranked military leaders completely denied it, stating there is no “critical” buildup of Russian forces seen in this direction:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces denied Zelenskyy’s nonsense about Russia preparing an offensive from Belarus
➖”At the moment, there is no critical situation regarding the buildup of Russian forces,” said Lieutenant General Nayev of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who previously headed the Joint Forces.
▪️As a reminder, Zelenskyy announced the threat of an attack from Belarus yesterday.
But virtually at the same time, Commander-in-Chief Syrsky himself did agree with Zelensky’s assessment:
He states quite clearly that the Russian general staff is drawing up plans for an offensive from the north. What are we to make of this?
This comes at a time when new Western ‘insider’ reports also claimed that Putin is preparing to demand more than just the Donbass, but Kiev and Odessa as well:
It’s quite fascinating how Russia’s collapse is said to be accelerating of late, yet new plans are announced each week of greater and greater conquests: Russia will take Kiev, Odessa, the Baltics, Europe itself, et cetera.
One thing is for certain: to the West, Russia remains the greatest and most indecipherable of enigmas.
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