Global Tipping Points Conference Statement 2025

Tim Lenton
Professor of Climate Change and Earth System Science, Global Systems Institute,
University of Exeter

Johan Rockström
Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Ricarda Winkelmann
Founding Director of the Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology and Earth Resilience Science Unit Chair, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Jul 3, 2025

Conference Statement

Global Tipping Points

Global warming is projected to exceed 1.5°C within a few years, placing humanity in the danger zone where multiple climate tipping points pose catastrophic risks to billions of people. Already tropical coral reefs have crossed their tipping point and are experiencing unprecedented dieback, impairing the livelihoods of hundreds of millions who depend on them. Current warming has activated these irreversible changes and every fraction of additional warming dramatically increases the risk of triggering further damaging tipping points.

These include a collapse of deep water formation in the Labrador-Irminger Seas triggering abrupt climate changes that reduce food and water security in northwest Europe and West Africa. Particularly alarming is the risk of collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which would plunge northwest Europe into prolonged severe winters, while radically undermining global food and water security. The Amazon rainforest is also at risk of widespread dieback from the combined effects of climate change and deforestation.

The window for preventing these cascading climate dynamics is rapidly closing, demanding immediate, unprecedented action from policymakers worldwide, and especially from leaders at COP30. This is a human rights and planetary health imperative and ultimately a matter of survival.

Critical to preventing climate tipping points is minimizing both the magnitude and duration of temperature overshoot above 1.5°C. Every year and every fraction of a degree above 1.5°C matters. To minimize overshoot, global greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 compared to 2010 levels, requiring an unprecedented acceleration in decarbonisation. Only that way can the world reach net zero emissions in time to peak global temperatures well below 2°C and start returning back to, and then below, 1.5°C. This will also require scaling of sustainable carbon removal from the atmosphere.

Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and binding long-term targets will only limit global warming to around 2.1°C. We therefore call on all nations updating their NDCs for the September 2025 deadline to set targets consistent with minimising overshoot of 1.5°C.

To achieve such targets we join the COP30 Presidency in calling on governments to enact policies that help trigger positive tipping points in their economies and societies, which generate self-propelling change in technologies and behaviours towards zero emissions. We also support the Global Mutirão initiative to catalyse collective action from civil society to help trigger positive tipping points to achieve common climate goals.

To trigger positive tipping points that help eliminate the 75% of greenhouse gas emissions linked to the energy system, and transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly, and equitable manner, we call on policymakers to adopt (and enforce) ambitious policy mandates to phase in clean technologies and phase out fossil fuelled ones. These include bans on the future sale of petrol/diesel cars, diesel trucks, and gas boilers. For less mature technologies such as green hydrogen, green ammonia and green steel, we call for increased investment in research, development and deployment.

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To trigger positive tipping points that help eliminate the 25% of greenhouse gas emissions linked to food, farming, and deforestation, we call on policymakers to adopt trade policies that catalyse sustainable commodity production and to shift public money from the livestock sector to plant-based proteins. This will also help limit the risk of tipping points in the biosphere – including dieback of the Amazon rainforest – and can liberate land for regenerating nature.

To trigger positive tipping points of nature regeneration that scale up sustainable removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, we call for policy and civil society action to protect indigenous rights, support community-led conservation initiatives, and ensure fair and transparent valuing of nature. This will help achieve the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets to restore 30% of degraded ecosystems and conserve 30% of land, waters and seas. It is essential to limiting overshoot of 1.5°C.

Only with such decisive policy and civil society action can the world tip its trajectory from facing unmanageable climate tipping point risks to seizing positive tipping point opportunities.

Endorsed by

Global Tipping Points

Alejandro Hermoso, University of Bern

Andrew Cunliffe, Oppenheimer Associate Professor of Geography, University of Exeter

Andy Richards, Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter

Anne Urai, Leiden University, The Netherlands

Ann-Kathrin Petersen (Climate Analytics)

Antony Philip Emenyu, University of Exeter

Axele Tanner Student Member of the Institute and Faculties of Actuaries Actuarial Analyst at Munich Re Group

Beatriz Arellano-Nava, University of Exeter

Bernardo Flores, Jurua Institute

Bettina Schwarzen, Zurich University of Applied Sciences ZHAW

Bob Walley, University of Exeter, University of Lancashire, Envirolution Cooperative

Boris Wieczorek, University of Bologna

Brynn O’Brien, Executive Director, ACCR

Carlos Nobre, University of São Paulo, Co-Chair of the Science Panel for the Amazon

Caroline Wallington, Centre for Sustainability Transitions, Stellenbosch University, South Africa

Cat Payne, Senior Climate Resilience Manager, Verture

Cesar Augusto Murad Rodriguez, University of Southampton

Chair, Winterbourne and Frome Valley Environmental Group

Chris Bauch, University of Waterloo

Chris Brown, Climatise

Chris Guilot, Awarenearth

Chris Nichols, Founding Partner GameShift

Chris Yesson, Zoological Society of London

Claire Sharrock, Producer, Open Planet

Daniel Heyen, University of Kaiserslautern-Landau

Dave-Inder Comar, Just Atonement Inc.

David Gale, Gale & Snowden Architects

Desislava Petrova, Barcelona Institute for Global Health

Dianty Ningrum, Anthropocene Laboratory

Dirk Scheer, KIT-ITAS, Germany

Dr Aliénor Lavergne, Senior Editor for Nature Geoscience, Springer Nature

Dr Ben Hudson, University of Exeter

Dr Cristina Ruiz Villena, National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leicester

Dr Dimitri Lafleur, ACCR

Dr Ed Gasson, University of Exeter

Dr Ekaterina Popova, National Oceanography Centre

Dr Jeremy Walton, Met Office

Dr Laura Fogg Rogers, Associate Professor Engineering in Society, University of the West of England, Bristol

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Dr Samantha Lavender, Pixalytics Ltd

Dr Steven Lade, Australian National University

Dr Tim Jones, Community Energy Plus

Dr Udo Engelhardt, Coral Reef Ecologist & Climate Science Communicator; Chief Scientist at The Climate Task Force, Ansvar 2030; EU climate Pact Ambassador

Dr. Courtney Howard, Emergency Physician, Founding Chair POWER: PlanetaryHealth Organizations for Wellbeing, Equity, and Regeneration, Canada.

Dr. Hans-Martin Füssel

Dr. Jacques Bara, University of Bonn

Dr. Jesse F. Abrams, Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter

Dr. Jonathan F. Donges, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Dr. Tarje Nissen-Meyer, Professor in Environmental Intelligence, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, UK Director, Earth Rover Program, London, UK

Eva Royo Gelabert, European Environment Agency

Felix Rodenjohann, Climate Pact Ambassador

Femke Nijsse, University of Exeter

Floor Alkemade, Eindhoven University of Technology

Frank Dentener Joint Research Centre, Italy

Freya Russell, Bournemouth University

Friederike Fröb, University of Bergen

Gareth Jones, Centre for Net Zero

Gauthier Martens, UCLouvain Saint-Louis Bruxelles

Gemma Bale, University of Cambridge and Advanced Research and Invention Agency UK

Gianluca Grimalda, University of Passau

Gwilym Owen, Emergency Planning and Resilience, Cardiff Council

Halle Krieger, upcoming PhD student at University of Exeter

Hannah Mulder, Associate Artist Northcott Theatre Exeter and theatre maker.

Hannah Nissan, Science and Advisory Director, Howden Insurance, Visiting Senior Fellow, Grantham Research Institute, LSE

Harald Desing, Empa, Switzerland

Harry Williams, University of Exeter

Hazel Jeffery, National Centre for Atmospheric Science

Helen Millman, University of Exeter

Ian Burton, University of Exeter

Inge Relph, Exec Director, Global Choices Foundation

Ioana Dima-West, AXA XL

Isobel Parry, University of Exeter

J. David Tabara, Autonomous University of Barcelona & Global Climate Forum

Jakob Harteg, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Jemilah Mahmood, Sunway Centre for Planetary Health Malaysia

Jo Crocker, Winchester Action on the Climate Crisis

Joan Forehand, Concerned Citizen

Jonathan Gosling, Pelumbra Ltd

Jonathan Rosser, London School of Economics

Joshua Buxton, Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter

Juliane Mirow, Junior Researcher in Climate Change and Health

Katharine Lewis, Cornwall Climate Action Network

Kit Vaughan

Larissa van der Laan, University of Copenhagen

Liam Bullock, Geological and Mining Institute of Spain

Liz Gadd, freelance

Lucas Ferreira Correa, LMU Munich

Lukas Torscht, Roskilde University

Madhumitha Ardhanari, University of Exeter and Queensland

Madleen Grohganz, NIOZ

Manjana MILKOREIT, University of Oslo

Marten Scheffer, Wageningen University

Michael Weiss, Carleton University

Milena Holmgren, Wageningen University, The Netherlands

Nadine Rose, Real World Impact Ltd

Natasa Kovac, Ministry for the Environment, Climate and Energy, Slovenia

Neel Le Penru, Imperial College London

Nick Stoop, Founder & CEO of Pangea Impact Investments

Nina Lenger

Noah Maurer, Imperial College London

Oliver Bettis, Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Olivier Blumberger

Owen Gaffney, Earth4all, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development

Paula de Jong, Associate Researcher, Hochschule Fulda

Per Olsson, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University

Peter Bunyard, Independent Writer and Scientist.

Peter Lefort, Green Futures Network, the University of Exeter

Please include Durwood Zelkes suggestion of action on SLCP as a priority for immediate action Cat Payne, Verture

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Prof Dr Jr Fenna Blomsma, University of Hamburg

Prof Peter Cox, Director of the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter

Prof. Simon Willcock, Bangor University & Rothamsted Research

Professor Mark Lawrence, University of Adelaide

Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, University of Potsdam

Rafael Bernardi, CURE, Universidad de la República, Uruguay.

Reik Donner, Hochschule Magdeburg-Stendal, Germany

Richard Sulley, The Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures

Rita Guerreiro Teixeira, Assistant Professor of Public International Law, Utrecht University

Ronny Rotbarth, University of Freiburg

Rosa Roman. TUM

Rune Baastrup, Democracy X

Ruth R Chapman, NBI, University of Copenhagen

S Bannon, University of Sussex

Sam Jackson, Ecologi

Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Co-President, The Club of Rome

Sandy George, BSc(Hons) Design & Innovation (Environment); Sustainable Homes Adviser at Community Energy Plus, and member of Roseland Environment Action Community Team, acting in personal capacity.

Sarah Hülsen, Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich

Selim Haj Ali, Postdoctoral Fellow at the Global Systems institute, University of Exeter

Shalyn Wilkins

Simón Ladino Cano – PhD Candidate at EPFL

Sir Henry Studholme, Farmer, Forester and forest researcher

Sonny Mumbunan, Climate Policy Lab, Faculty of Social Sciences at Indonesian International Islamic University (UIII) and Center for Climate and Sustainable Finance University of Indonesia (CCSF UI).

Sophy Oliver, National Oceanography Centre

Stefania Asta Karlsdottir, University of Oxford

Stefano Caserini University of Parma, Italy

Steven George, European Space Agency (ESA)

Susanna Corti – Director of Research -Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate – National Research Council of Italy.

Tatjana Baleta, Wikimedia Fellow for Climate at the Global Systems Institute

Theo Cox, Demos Helsinki

Thijs Christiaan van Son, Ecofluent, Cooling the Climate

Tim Hodgson, personal endorsement

Tim Quine, University of Exeter

Timothy Foster, University of Southampton

Tokuta Yokohata, National Institute for Environmental Studies

Tom Diebel, PKU Yenching Scholar

Tom Powell, University of Exeter

Tony Burdon, supporting IFOA Planetary Solvency work, ex-CEO Make My Money Matter

Tony Siantonas, Director of Regenerative Business, TechnoServe

Tsungrojungla Walling, Indian Institute of Science

Veronica Pizziol, University of Bologna

Viktoria Spaiser, University of Leeds

Violetta Ritz

Vivien Reh, University of Eastern Finland

Yan Campioni Cavalcante Dantas, Master student at Federal University of Pará

Yiannis Kranidiotis

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