Bibi to Don: You can’t use your nukes without starting Armageddon. But we can use ours

By Paul LarudeeE

Twice in the last year, Israel and its Big Brother have started a war to crush Iran. Without success. But if at first you don’t succeed… So Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still trying to sell the leader of the dwindling superpower on the idea of destroying Iran.

Netanyahu is obsessed, because – in his view – Iran is the only sworn enemy of Israel that is powerful enough to prevent his aim of complete domination in West Asia. The destruction of Iraq, Libya and Syria were stepping stones on the path to his vision, but he calculates that only Iran now stands in his way. And that is unacceptable.

He will is telling Trump that they both should have tried harder and been better prepared last June and again this January, but if they don’t succeed now, they risk losing the opportunity altogether, which would be unthinkable. Last year, they were surprised at the sophistication and depth of Iran’s weaponry. Israel suffered serious losses at its air bases, its integrated operational headquarters, known as Unit 8200, and its intelligence services, the Mossad. But even more serious, they and the US determined that after 11 days of war, they had a critical shortage of anti-aircraft weaponry to stop the superior numbers of Iranian hypersonic missiles and long-range drones. That’s when they offered a ceasefire, and Iran accepted.

This January they didn’t even get that far. On both occasions, Israel and the US initiated the conflict with major internal sabotage to disable Iran’s government and military capability. Both times, they failed, and in January, they failed early enough and decisively enough that the military invasion was called off.

Now the US is amassing its navy and airforce – but not its army – in the region, for an even more robust attack. They were hoping that the threat would be enough to cause Iran to surrender at the negotiation table what they have so far failed to accept. But that, too, is failing, because the demands are absurd: to give up their entire defense arsenal, the most elemental uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes, and to end all relations with regional allies. Ridiculous. No country is going to strip itself bare naked and bend over voluntarily.

Would Iran “win” against an all-out fight? Perhaps not, but neither would the US and Israel. The intelligence services of the US, Israel, Britain, and other nations have no doubt that, even if Iran “loses” – it can inflict major destruction upon the vaunted US “armada” as well as its bases in the region. More to the point, it can cut off the narrow straight of Hormuz, blocking the transit of petroleum tankers from the biggest supply of oil in the world. It can also just as easily destroy the major production facilities surrounding the Persian Gulf, in Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. The world’s economy would go into a tailspin. Furthermore, Iran would resume where it left off in Israel, and destroy the remainder of its major military and economic resources. In fact, Israel even offered to stay out of the fight if Iran would leave them alone. Iran refused.

In short, there is no strategy for the defeat of Iran that will not also bring great destruction upon its attackers, as well as economic catastrophe on the entire world. But Benjamin Netanyahu will not be deterred. Israel will not suffer economic catastrophe, because the US will provide, whatever the sacrifice to the US. Furthermore, a global economic disaster only enhances Israel’s protected position, as well as its potential for expansion. Israel views chaos as opportunity.

But Israel must also defeat and destroy Iran, while avoiding the destruction that Iran is capable of wreaking upon Israel. I believe that in Netanyahu’s mind, the only option for that to happen is to go nuclear – early and decisively. If he is right now discussing this with Trump, he is saying that while the use of US nuclear weapons might risk global nuclear Armageddon, Israeli nuclear weapons might be less of a risk, and the US could maintain deniability. In order to work, the nuclear strike would have to be at the start of the attack and sufficient in number to assure that they get past Iranian defenses and knock out the weapons that would otherwise destroy Israel.

This is a terrifying prospect, with potentially wide ranging consequences, including nuclear Armageddon. Let us hope that the US will refuse, and that Israel will not attempt to go it alone, if Netanyahu even proposes it. This is the most likely outcome, in my opinion, but I also believe that the possibility is too important to leave unspoken. I would rather see businessman Trump drop the sanctions and threats, and establish mutually beneficial relationships and investments with Iran, regardless of what Israel says.

Also read: War Clouds over Iran

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