By Intel_Sky | July 25, 2026
General Strategic Landscape. Morning of Saturday, July 25, 2026 On the thirty-eighth day since the collapse of the Memorandum of Understanding and the one hundred and forty-seventh day of the war, the broader confrontation entered a new phase combining complex diplomacy with hard deterrence.
For the first time in two weeks, no US airstrikes targeted Iran’s interior overnight, coinciding with advanced talks conducted in Tehran by a high-level Omani delegation to formulate the technical and navigational arrangements governing the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump continues to signal that military options remain on the table by preparing munitions for a “major strike” intended to break Iran’s resolve. He has also invited Benjamin Netanyahu to visit Washington on Monday. In a related and dramatic development, the Yemeni-Saudi front erupted following airstrikes on communications infrastructure in Hodeidah and Kamaran Island. Sana’a responded with a missile barrage exceeding 50 projectiles, destroying the Aramco complex in Jizan and intensifying pressure on global energy and refining markets.
Axis One: Trump’s Manoeuvring, the Omani Track in Tehran, and the Hormuz Negotiations 1. Trump’s Dual Options and Talks with Tehran Trump stated that Washington faces two options: continuing the bombing campaign and destroying Iranian capabilities, or reaching an agreement through the negotiations currently under way. He explained that he is reviewing reports and a broad range of options and targets submitted by his advisers for a major strike intended to break Tehran’s will, according to reports by *The New York Times* and *The Wall Street Journal*. This coincided with his invitation to Netanyahu to visit the White House next Monday.
2. Progress on the Muscat Track and the Framework for Managing the Strait Sources reported tangible progress during the Omani delegation’s visit to Tehran toward implementing the June 23 statement and establishing a joint working group between the Iranian and Omani foreign ministries. The group would oversee vessel movements, maritime services and navigation costs in the Strait of Hormuz while respecting the sovereignty of the two coastal states. This progress has temporarily reduced the likelihood of the war expanding, although the arrangements remain dependent on complex security calculations.
3. Vessel Disablement and Human Casualties Washington continued tightening the blockade by disabling the vessel *Lavine*, striking its engine room after it allegedly attempted to break the restrictions. Another tanker arriving from the Gulf of Oman was also targeted on suspicion that it was carrying Iranian gas. Meanwhile, Iran’s Ministry of Health disclosed that US attacks since June 27 had killed 59 people and wounded 666 others.
Axis Two: The Fire at the Aramco Complex in Jizan and the Explosion of the Yemeni-Saudi Front 1. Saudi Airstrikes and the Messages from Hizam al-Assad and Mohammed Abdulsalam Saudi aircraft carried out strikes targeting communications facilities in Hodeidah and on Kamaran Island, injuring one worker. Sana’a’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded by announcing an “escalation for escalation” equation and warning against committing a major act of recklessness. Senior official Hizam al-Assad confirmed that the equation of “port for port and airport for airport” had entered into force. Mohammed Abdulsalam also attacked the Saudi position, describing its conduct as resembling that of “Israel” in imposing a blockade while sheltering behind international resolutions.
2. The Strike on the Aramco Complex in Jizan and the Heavy Missile Response In the early hours of today, the Yemeni Armed Forces launched more than 50 projectiles and missiles, including five precision ballistic missiles targeting the Aramco industrial complex in Jizan, which has a refining capacity of 400,000 barrels per day. The attack caused massive fires and a complete power outage across wide areas of Jizan and Khamis Mushait. Commercial aircraft bound for Jeddah were also forced to circle in the air.
3. The Attack on the NCC MASA Tanker and the Saudi Statement Sana’a’s naval missile force struck the Saudi oil tanker *NCC MASA* in the Red Sea. The Riyadh-led coalition subsequently announced that it had carried out a proportionate response to protect maritime navigation and the Kingdom’s strategic assets. The coalition stated that it had not targeted the Port of Hodeidah and that the ports would remain open for essential services.
Axis Three: Strikes in the Gulf, Aviation Paralysis, and Intelligence Tracking Through OSINT 1. Strikes on Juffair Base and US Facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain The Iranian Army and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps resumed attacks on US bases. Three powerful explosions struck Juffair Base, home to the US Naval Support Activity in Bahrain, resulting in confirmed casualties. At the same time, strikes targeted US troop concentrations and storage facilities in Kuwait, including Camps Buehring, Doha and Arifjan, as well as Ali Al Salem Air Base.
2. Aviation Disruptions and the Cancellation of Tel Aviv Flights Austrian Airlines and Italy’s ITA Airways, part of the Lufthansa Group, cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv in anticipation of further escalation. Separately, two British Eurofighter Typhoon jets intercepted a Qatar Airways Boeing 777 over Manchester after the aircraft lost contact with air traffic control.
3. Intelligence-Surveillance Movements and the Drone Airlift Tracking data showed an E-11A BACN battlefield communications and command aircraft stationed at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. An RC-135W Rivet Joint intelligence aircraft was positioned at Souda Bay in Greece, while two EA-37B Compass Call electronic warfare aircraft were redirected from Britain to the island of Crete. An Emirati C-17A transport aircraft also returned from Poland’s Rzeszów hub after reportedly transporting Ukrainian interceptor drones.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook The temporary suspension of US strikes deep inside Iran and the diplomatic breakthrough achieved through the Omani initiative do not necessarily mean that the war is coming to an end. This is particularly true given Trump’s transfer of precision-guided munitions and his invitation to Netanyahu to visit Washington, combined with the severe strike on Jizan, which exposed the vulnerability of the region’s oil infrastructure.
Based on these interconnected developments, the coming hours are likely to see the continuation of Omani-Iranian consultations aimed at securing maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz. However, any failure to contain Saudi-Yemeni tensions could lead to attacks on refining outlets in Yanbu and other Saudi ports. This would place Trump and Congress before an unavoidable choice: consolidate the Omani-brokered truce or trigger a comprehensive “major strike” across the region.
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