Washington Prepares to Expand the War, While Tehran Mobilizes to Protect the Islands — Talal Nahle
Jul 22, 2026
General Strategic Landscape. Wednesday, July 22, 2026
On the thirty-fifth day since the collapse of the Memorandum of Understanding and the one hundred and forty-fourth day of the war, the full-scale confrontation entered a phase of high-risk attrition and preparations for extensive area-wide airstrikes. Washington completed its eleventh consecutive night of strikes as part of a “ring of fire” strategy stretching from Sistan and Baluchestan to the Iraqi border. It deployed B-1B Lancer strategic bombers and advanced airborne command platforms, while the Pentagon acknowledged that the cost of the war had surged to $37.5 billion.
In response, Tehran effectively nationalized the Strait of Hormuz, with zero oil or gas tankers recorded transiting the waterway. This coincided with one-way attack drone strikes against US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, as well as the mobilization of popular forces to protect Iran’s southern islands. Meanwhile, Tel Aviv suffered a political blow after Washington withdrew its demand that Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel as a condition for obtaining the right to enrich uranium.
First Axis: The US Strategy, B-1B Bombers, and the Ballooning Financial Cost
1. “Ring of Fire” Strikes and Strategic Readiness US Central Command, CENTCOM, completed its eleventh night of strikes, targeting operational centers, naval capabilities, and infrastructure in Bushehr, Dashti, Ilam near Jowar, Hendijan in Khuzestan, and Sirik. Air defenses were also activated in the capital, Tehran, and around Isfahan. The objective is to impose a ring of fire encircling Iran’s southern coastal belt.
2. B-1B Strategic Bombers Launch as a BACN Platform Arrives
The US Air Force carried out Bomber Mission LXIII, launching two B-1B Lancer strategic bombers from RAF Fairford in Britain, operating under the call signs HEINZ23 and HEINZ24, to strike targets deep inside Iran.
At the same time, an E-11A Battlefield Airborne Communications Node, BACN, aircraft, serial number 24-9049, arrived in Europe en route to Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. This represents one of the clearest operational indicators that preparations are underway to expand the regional war and coordinate increasingly complex air operations.
3. Airpower Concentration in Jordan and the Catastrophic Financial Cost
Washington increased its aerial reinforcements at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan to 51 F-35 fighters and 36 F-15 fighters from the 48th Fighter Wing and units based at Hill and Mountain Home, in addition to dozens of A-10 aircraft.
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth acknowledged before the Senate that the direct cost of the war had risen to $37.5 billion. He requested a record defense budget of $1.5 trillion, while simultaneously admitting that the United States was incapable of destroying every Iranian boat or missile.
Second Axis: Iranian Counterstrikes and the Paralysis of Hormuz. Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, and Mobilization
1. Targeting US Forces in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain
The Iranian Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched coordinated drone attacks. Operation “Saeqa” targeted residential and service buildings, as well as US Army equipment warehouses, at Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan.
Arash one-way attack drones struck equipment hangars and heavy-aircraft maintenance facilities at Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain. Additional strikes targeted US ground-force equipment in western Kuwait.
2. Zero Maritime Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz
Ship-tracking data reported by Reuters showed a collapse in navigation through the strait. Only three cargo vessels crossed on Tuesday, while zero very large crude carriers, VLCCs, and zero liquefied natural gas, LNG, carriers were recorded.
This consolidates the effective maritime blockade imposed by Tehran and reinforces its warning that the global economy remains within its reach.
3. Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters Statement and Mobilization of the Islands
Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters declared that any US attack on nuclear or sensitive facilities would constitute a comprehensive expansion of the war, placing all US interests, allied interests, and associated assets throughout the region within targeting range.
Brigadier General Mohammad Karami, commander of the IRGC Ground Forces, ordered the activation of Basij mobilization units to secure Iran’s islands and coastal lines against any potential US landing operation.
4. Rejecting French Diplomatic Allegations
The Iranian Foreign Ministry rejected Paris’s claims that employees of the French Embassy in Tehran had been subjected to intimidation. It described the conduct of the French diplomats as unlawful and contrary to international conventions.
Third Axis: Washington’s Blow to Tel Aviv and the Diplomatic Maneuvering
1. Washington Retreats from Israel’s Condition on Saudi Arabia
Reports that President Trump had agreed to allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium for civilian purposes without requiring it to normalize relations with Israel triggered widespread shock and anger across the Israeli media and security establishment.
Israeli circles viewed the decision as a severe political and security blow to Netanyahu’s government and as the loss of one of the most important negotiating cards established in 2023.
2. Rubio’s ASEAN Summit Statements and the Role of Mediators
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington remained open to negotiations, while accusing Tehran of lacking seriousness and claiming that divisions existed within its governing system.
He warned that blockading maritime corridors would establish a precedent with severe consequences for the global economy. Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that it continued to receive proposals through intermediaries without disclosing their details.
3. Israeli Obstruction in Southern Lebanon
The Israeli occupation army continued to impose operational obstacles aimed at preventing residents from returning to the town of Zawtar al-Gharbiyah in southern Lebanon, despite the deployment of Lebanese Army units and engineering teams to conduct surveys and clearance operations.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
The deployment of the BACN strategic communications aircraft and the launch of B-1B bombers, coinciding with the complete paralysis of oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz, place the region at the most dangerous turning point yet in the conflict.
Washington’s concentration of dozens of fighter aircraft in Jordan and the Gulf indicates that the Pentagon is preparing to launch a large-scale wave of airstrikes intended to break the coastal blockade and undermine Tehran’s resolve.
Based on these developments, the coming hours may bring a genuine test of Iran’s red line if the United States carries out its threats to strike fortified sites. Such an operation could very plausibly trigger a devastating Iranian missile response targeting oil installations and US bases across the Gulf states.
The Middle East could consequently slide into an open regional confrontation capable of paralyzing global energy and financial networks on an unprecedented scale.
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