The Erim Plan and the Strategy Behind the Cyprus Divide

A look at the 1956 secret reports that shaped Turkish thinking on Cyprus and continue to influence the Eastern Mediterranean today.

By Dinos Toumazos

In 1956 the Turkish academic and politician Nihat Erim prepared two secret reports for the government in Ankara.

These documents examined the future of Cyprus and proposed a long term strategy for Turkey.

Many historians believe that the ideas in these reports influenced Turkish policy on Cyprus for decades. Today they still help explain the political realities of the island and the wider tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Strategic Background

In the mid 1950s Cyprus was under British colonial rule. At the same time the armed campaign of EOKA had brought the demand for self determination to the international stage. The possibility that Cyprus might unite with Greece created strong concern in Turkey.

Because of this situation the Turkish government asked Nihat Erim to prepare a strategic analysis of the Cyprus question. Erim later became Prime Minister of Turkey, but at that time he was already an important political thinker.

His reports, delivered in November and December 1956, outlined how Turkey should respond to developments on the island.

The Core Strategic Idea

At the center of Erim’s analysis was a clear conclusion. Turkey should prevent the union of Cyprus with Greece.

Erim argued that Cyprus had major strategic importance for Turkey. The island lies close to the Turkish mainland and holds a key position in the Eastern Mediterranean. Control of Cyprus could influence security and political balance across the region.

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Even though the majority of the island’s population was Greek, Erim believed that Turkey could not accept the possibility of Cyprus becoming fully controlled by Greece.

His proposed solution was the partition of the island. This policy became widely known as the doctrine of Taksim.

The strategy included the idea of dividing the island geographically, establishing separate administrative structures, and ensuring a permanent Turkish presence on part of the island.

Later Historical Developments

Many historians have observed that several elements of the Erim strategy appeared again in later developments.

Intercommunal tensions during the 1960s, the Turkish military intervention in 1974, and the continued occupation of the Northern part of the Republic of Cyprus created a political reality that in many ways reflected the thinking expressed in the 1956 reports.

Another important issue is the movement of settlers from Turkey to the northern part of the Republic of Cyprus after 1974. Some researchers view this as part of a broader strategy to strengthen Turkey’s presence in Cyprus.

The Analysis of Neoklis Sarris

One of the scholars who was born in Turkey and studied Turkish strategic thinking in depth was Neoklis Sarris.

Sarris examined Turkish political thought and foreign policy with careful attention to historical context. His knowledge of the Turkish language and his research on Ottoman and modern Turkish history allowed him to analyze Turkish strategic thinking with unusual and exceptional clarity.

Through his work many readers gained a deeper understanding of how Turkish leaders viewed the importance of Cyprus.

A Cross Cultural Perspective

The discussion of the Erim reports today is not limited to Greek or Cypriot scholars.

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Two Turkish speaking analysts, Oz Karahan and Aziz Sah, have approached the Erim reports through the research and historical analysis of Neoklis Sarris.

Their work shows that the study of the Cyprus problem can encourage dialogue and understanding across national and linguistic boundaries.

Cyprus in the Modern Geopolitical Environment

Nearly seventy years after the Erim reports were written, Cyprus remains a central issue in the geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean.

The discovery of natural gas resources, the development of regional alliances, and changing security dynamics, have made the region increasingly complex.

In this environment the Erim reports remain important because they reveal the long term strategic thinking behind many political developments.

The story of the Erim reports reminds us that geopolitical realities are rarely the result of sudden events.

They often emerge from strategic ideas developed many years earlier.

Understanding these ideas can help societies better interpret political developments and approach the future with greater awareness.

History does not change the past. But it can illuminate the present and help guide the choices of the future.

* Dinos Toumazos is a co-founder and director of Agora Dialogue.

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